Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.8%
Prévisionnistes
60
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète18 août 23, 19:32 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Manifold MarketsDid Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)
Manifold MarketsWill the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Manifold MarketsWill Lucy Letby be released before end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.
- Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have been shoddy: https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/ https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated by a court? This question resolved YES if she is released from prison either because a court of jurisdiction has determined her innocent (under any legal standard), or because a court has determined that she can't be held due to flaws in her trial or the evidence presented at her trial, and no new trial is expected to take place.
- This question resolves NO if that has not occurred by Jan 1, 2027.
- (If significant legal proceedings are in progress on that date, this will be extended until they are concluded).
- (For purposes of this question, if a court determines that she is not guilty of intentional murder, but substitutes a lesser charge involving negligence, manslaughter, or medical practice, this does count as exoneration.)
