Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.5%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:23 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Manifold MarketsDid Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)
Manifold MarketsWill the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.
- Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have been shoddy: https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/ https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated by a court? This question resolved YES if she is released from prison either because a court of jurisdiction has determined her innocent (under any legal standard), or because a court has determined that she can't be held due to flaws in her trial or the evidence presented at her trial, and no new trial is expected to take place.
- This question resolves NO if that has not occurred by Jan 1, 2027.
- (If significant legal proceedings are in progress on that date, this will be extended until they are concluded).
- (For purposes of this question, if a court determines that she is not guilty of intentional murder, but substitutes a lesser charge involving negligence, manslaughter, or medical practice, this does count as exoneration.)
Marchés ouverts
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 8,6 k €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-5.5pt16%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Volume total
- 503,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6 k €
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.5pt70.3%
- Yes-5.5pt29.7%
- Volume total
- 353,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6 k €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++2.5pt39.2%
- 20–40+2.8pt10.8%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil17%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+2.0pt15%
+21 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
- Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by which date?
- Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.