Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 71%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète25 août 26, 03:59 UTC16 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947.
- As of market creation the paper is circulating as a PDF outside arXiv; his most recent arXiv submission is "More than two thirds of the zeta zeros are simple and on the critical line" (2026-08-13), and his July 2026 Jacobian-conjecture counterexample is not on arXiv either.
- This market is about the posting, not the correctness.
- Resolves YES if, at any time from market creation through 2026-10-15, 23:59 ET, arxiv.org lists a preprint (any version, any primary category) with Levent Alpöge as an author whose subject is the existence of a complex / integrable complex structure on the 6-sphere.
- Resolves NO otherwise — including if the paper only ever circulates as a personal-website or social-media PDF, is submitted to a journal without an arXiv posting, is withdrawn, or appears on arXiv without Alpöge as an author.
- Oracle: the arXiv listing itself — https://arxiv.org/a/alpoge_l_1 and arXiv full-text search.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? doit être résolu le 16 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947.