Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.4%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète29 août 23, 08:23 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf the US confirms aliens exist, will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027
Manifold MarketsWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- May resolve N/A if there is no pope and, in my judgement, if there were a pope he might confirm that Jesus has returned.
- Market idea from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823/comment/39215917
- [link preview]Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Pope's confirmation must specifically refer to the Second Coming of Christ for the market to resolve YES.
- If the Pope confirms the Second Coming of Christ has occurred, this would resolve YES.
Marchés ouverts
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume total
- 56,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 13,3 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No75%
- Yes25%
- Volume total
- 6,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,6 k €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Pietro Parolin5%
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 118 k €
- Volume 24h
- 64,5 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No+1.5pt89.1%
- Yes-1.5pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 798,3 €
- Volume 24h
- —
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No-0.1pt91%
- Yes+0.1pt9%
- Volume total
- 8,9 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSCatholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- No85.7%
- Yes14.3%
- Volume total
- 793,6 €
- Volume 24h
- —
- Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
- Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.