Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.4%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète31 mars 24, 05:11 UTC1 janv. 46, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsOn May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time worldwide be a James Cameron movie?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurRègles
See: @/strutheo/will-jeff-bezos-ever-fly-around-or
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
- See: @/strutheo/will-mark-zuckerberg-ever-orbit-or
- See: @/strutheo/will-palmer-lucky-ever-orbit-or-wal
- See: @/strutheo/will-sergey-brin-ever-orbit-or-walk
Marchés ouverts
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will James Cameron ever orbit or walk on the moon? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will James Cameron ever orbit or walk on the moon? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will James Cameron ever orbit or walk on the moon? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2046.
- Comment Will James Cameron ever orbit or walk on the moon? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : See: @/strutheo/will-jeff-bezos-ever-fly-around-or