Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète22 août 23, 12:47 UTC2 août 28, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will RAM be more expensive next year? (Oct 2026 - Oct 2027)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the director of the most expensive movie made and released at the end of 2028, adjusted for inflation?
Manifold MarketsWhich five artists will be at the top of the list for most expensive paintings ever sold on Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketNYC median asking rent in December 2026
KalshiCPI YoY in November
KalshiRègles
For every quarter, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) publishes very detailed statistics on the cost of flights between a wide variety of US cities.
- They even inflation adjust historical prices to the current quarter!
- At the very bottom of their table, they have a row "National Average".
- Once the 2028 Q1 statistics are released, I will calculate the percentage increase in fare prices (((2023Q1AverageFare-2028Q1AverageFare)/2023Q1AverageFare)*100).
- This market will resolve YES if the inflation adjusted national average fare in 2028Q1 (2023Q1AverageFare) is more than 33 percent higher than the inflation adjusted national average fare in 2023Q1 (2023Q1AverageFare) (e.g. if the result of the above calculation is 33 or higher).
- Else, it will resolve no.