Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 86.7%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète14 mars 23, 19:52 UTC31 déc. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Israel be a 'full' or 'flawed democracy' according to the Democracy Index in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
To have a precise definition, it has to be rated at least "flawed democracy", and above "hybrid regime", by Democracy Index.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,6 k €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 104,5 k €
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : To have a precise definition, it has to be rated at least "flawed democracy", and above "hybrid regime", by Democracy Index.