Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 53.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard3 juin 24, 09:34 UTC1 janv. 41, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia ever become a democracy?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will Andy Burnham meet in person in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Criteria for Resolution:
- Democracy Definition: Iran must undergo significant political changes resulting in a form of government characterized by free and fair elections, protection of civil liberties, political pluralism, and the rule of law.
- Verification of Democratic Status:
- - Free and Fair Elections: Iran must hold national elections that are widely recognized as free and fair by reputable international organizations, such as the United Nations, the European Union, or credible NGOs like Freedom House or the Carter Center.
- - Civil Liberties: There must be substantial evidence of the protection of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion, as reported by reputable human rights organizations.
- - Political Pluralism: Multiple political parties must be able to operate without undue restriction, and opposition parties must have a genuine chance to compete for power.
