Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
IA
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Russia 33.3%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète8 juil. 24, 16:56 UTC31 déc. 49, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-Dem_Democracy_Indices
- Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Polity score and V-DEM score are discontinued, the creator will update the market to use other democracy scores for resolution.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Russia à 33% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2049.
- Comment Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018