Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
IA
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 03:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Russia 33.3%En tête parmi 4 options
Russia 33.3%Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète8 juil. 24, 16:56 UTC31 déc. 49, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In case of a war with Iran before 2050, will Saudi Arabia runs out of water for its population?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a so-called "nuclear Saudi Arabia" by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Saudi Arabia with more than 100 000 deaths before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia ever become a democracy?
Manifold MarketsHouthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
PolymarketRègles
As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-Dem_Democracy_Indices
- Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Polity score and V-DEM score are discontinued, the creator will update the market to use other democracy scores for resolution.
