Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète16 mars 24, 01:05 UTC23 mars 36, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves as YES if Ilya Sutskever is found to be replaced by a body double, e.g. a similar-looking person with plastic surgery or plaster/makeup to look more like Ilya.
- This must be a serious effort to pose as Ilya, a Halloween costume or gag will not count.
- This market will not resolve as YES if Ilya disappears or changes his face or otherwise assumes a new identity, only if a body double is left in his place.
- Much of the probability mass for YES comes from the possibility that Ilya becomes a major politician or head of state e.g. of Russia, Canada, Israel, or the US (if the citizen requirement changes).
