Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89%
Prévisionnistes
79
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
1 sept. 26, 15:57 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
PolymarketIf Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5?
Manifold MarketsWho will win gold medal at 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.
- I have started a project to see how doable this is at scale, may drop it if it doesn’t go anywhere.
- Tips welcome.
- By ‘solve’ I don't have a too airtight definition, but it would definitely count if a Lean statement was proven without exploiting bugs in the lean kernel for example, as would an involved expert mathematician signing off on it.
- Edge cases like AIs all agreeing the solution is clearly correct, and nobody managing to find errors, would lead to the market staying closed pre-resolution to give the math community time to find errors, but I may ultimately count it without strong guarantees if it seems very likely to be correct.
- A problem still counts if it's a solve that shows the problem wasn't interesting after all, or similar cope
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.