Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 65%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète28 sept. 24, 22:16 UTC2 janv. 01, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSouth Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q3 2026
KalshiUS share of global GDP in 2026
KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiRègles
This question is an exploration of the "growth explosion" hypothesis that would come as a result of AI.
- Specifically its effect on the labor part of a labor-capital-technology model of an economy.
- introduction to the idea:
- https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24108787/ai-economic-growth-explosive-automation
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVyurFOgUjM
Marchés ouverts
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.3%+5.0pt98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.2%98%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 247,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 79,4 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-4.0pt4%
- Volume total
- 3,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 18,6 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%+1.0pt99%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 131,3 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+2.0pt89.1%
- Yes-2.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 1,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 13,1 k €
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+5.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%+4.0pt93%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No72%
- Yes+4.0pt28%
- Volume total
- 379,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,3 k €
- CPI core in October
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI core in September
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- US Nominal GDP in 2026
- China unemployment rate in September
- September 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
- CPI in November
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 65% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2201.
- Comment Will global GDP growth rate (real) exceed 21% by the end of the 21st century? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question is an exploration of the "growth explosion" hypothesis that would come as a result of AI.