Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.5%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète15 juin 26, 17:51 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
OpenRouter AI token usage in September
KalshiHow much will global AI inference token usage grow from 2029 to 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if GitHub officially announces or implements a reversal of the usage-based token billing model (which utilizes GitHub AI Credits) introduced on June 1, 2026, and returns to a legacy model such as a request-based billing system (Premium Request Units) or a standard flat-rate billing system for active GitHub Copilot subscriptions.
- This market resolves to NO if no such structural reversion is announced or implemented by December 31, 2026 (or another date specified by the market creator).
- Source of Truth: Official statements on the GitHub Blog or updates within the GitHub Copilot Documentation.
- Clarification: Adjustments to the amount of included monthly AI Credits, lowering token costs, or creating new pricing tiers within the token consumption framework will not trigger a YES resolution.
- The change must be a structural departure from billing strictly by input, output, and cached token consumption.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria