Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 52.4%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète29 juin 25, 08:16 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
KalshiWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
tweet: https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123
- Gary makes the following predictions:
- The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).
- Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).
- Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 94,7 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 35,2 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+2.5pt51.9%
- 27°C+2.5pt23.1%
- 25°C-2.0pt17.3%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,3 k €
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11,9 k €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-0.8pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 résultats de plus
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : tweet: https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123