In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
IAOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56.5%
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 22, 20:37 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsWill at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark)."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The AI can perform about as well as a good human cook in most kitchens
- It does not require the kitchen to be reorganized for its use
Marchés ouverts
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+3 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
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- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things