By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
One-OffIA3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 88.9%
Prévisionnistes
127
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 22, 20:34 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) sera-t-il résolu ?
- By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things