Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 93%
Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 22, 21:19 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
In the [original post](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things) Gary Marcus bets that <3 will resolve to YES.
- Will he lose his bet?
- This market resolves YES if I believe he lost, i.e. I resolve at least three of the other markets to YES, not if Gary Marcus admits he lost.
- Links to the other markets:
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-read
