Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 93%
Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 22, 21:19 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRègles
In the [original post](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things) Gary Marcus bets that <3 will resolve to YES.
- Will he lose his bet?
- This market resolves YES if I believe he lost, i.e. I resolve at least three of the other markets to YES, not if Gary Marcus admits he lost.
- Links to the other markets:
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-read
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In the [original post](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things) Gary Marcus bets that <3 will resolve to YES.