Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 87.1%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète3 juil. 24, 20:12 UTC1 janv. 51, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
Manifold Markets“Will we discover definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030
Manifold MarketsWill humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRègles
Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization
- For the purposes of this market, an "extraterrestrial civilization" is defined as any organized society or community originating from outside Earth that displays one or more of the following characteristics:
- Technological Artifacts: Objects or signals clearly created by non-human intelligence, such as advanced machinery, spacecraft, or artificial structures.
- Communication Signals: Radio, laser, or other forms of communication that unmistakably originate from an intelligent source.
- Biological Evidence: Life forms or biological signatures that demonstrate complex, organized life processes indicative of a developed society.
- Astrosocial Phenomena: Observable large-scale alterations or structures within a star system or galaxy that suggest the presence of an advanced society, such as Dyson spheres or large space habitats.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2051.
- Comment Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization