Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 92%
Non 92%Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
386,6 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
14
Commentaires
1
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we have conclusive evidence by 2030 that life on Earth has an extraterrestrial origin?
Manifold MarketsWill evidence of life be discovered on Mars before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
By 2020, mankind still had no irrefutable evidence that life flourished elsewhere other than on Earth.
- This search, however, is becoming more and more intense and Space Agencies around the world plan space missions to discover extraterrestrial life, whether current or that has existed in the past (biosignatures).
- Targets like Mars, moons of Jupiter and Saturn, and atmospheres of planets outside the solar system are the most targeted in this endeavor.
- If by December 31, 2026, any governmental Space Agency officially announces that it has found substantial evidence of the existence of life outside of earth - be it current life or traces of previous life in the form of bio-signatures - this market will resolve to "Yes".