Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffTechIASociété et culture1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.6%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète10 juin 26, 18:58 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill "Increasing returns to effort are common" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsLeague City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem pretty legible is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.