Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 65.7%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète23 janv. 24, 03:46 UTC2 janv. 40, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If most of the economy becomes automated without us all dying, will Eliezer Yudkowsky admit that he was wrong?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI figure out who is the ideal integrator of the conscious human experience by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill AGI figure out a quantilizer of which people roughly continued most to its global computation?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI/ASI/Digial-Superintelligence to figure out why he was wrong predicting AI would destroy humanity.
- Resolves yes if this happens by 2040.