Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
DivertissementOne-OffIAMusiqueTech13aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.6%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète12 mars 25, 07:22 UTC2 févr. 40, 13:29 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
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Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
The Awards that could count for the purposes of this market are:
- Turing Award
- IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal
- Millenium Technology Prize
- Nebula Award
- IEEE John von Neumann Medal
