Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète16 nov. 24, 06:47 UTC4 janv. 27, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Democrats regain control of the Senate in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketWhen will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if, at any point during the 1st session of the 119th Congress (noon 1/3/25 to noon 1/3/27), a plurality of sitting members in the US House of Representatives caucus with the Democratic Party, AND the Speaker of the House is a member of the Democratic Party.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt17%
- Gavin Newsom16%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 193,6 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt91%
- Republican Party-0.8pt9%
- Volume total
- 29,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 506,4 k €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro+24.8pt58.8%
- Delcy Rodríguez-27.5pt40.2%
- No Head of State+0.3pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Third Term99%
+34 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 843,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 408 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep60.2%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt29.6%
- Republicans sweep-1.6pt9.2%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections? doit être résolu le 4 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Democrats regain a House majority between elections? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if, at any point during the 1st session of the 119th Congress (noon 1/3/25 to noon 1/3/27), a plurality of sitting members in the US House of Representatives caucus with the Democratic Party, AND the Speaker of the House is a member of the Democratic Party.