KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Nov 14 98%En tête parmi 8 options
Qualité du marché
41 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
9,2 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
7.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
20 août 26, 14:00 UTC4 nov. 26, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?
KalshiRepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRègles
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The Associated Press
- The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner.
- The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is their primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible on the outlet's platform, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication.
- If the call is later retracted, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes based on the initial call time.
- Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify as definitive calls.
- If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
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POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Nov 14 à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority? doit être résolu le 4 novembre 2026.
- Comment When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.