Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète2 nov. 23, 12:54 UTC1 janv. 70, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Manifold MarketsIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiRègles
If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.
- Otherwise NO after close.
- 10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:
- outright deaths
- decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe
- reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 916 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 863,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1 k €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2070.
- Comment Will climate change decimate humans before 2070? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.