Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?
One-OffReligionSociété et culture4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.3%
Prévisionnistes
96
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète25 avr. 26, 11:16 UTC31 déc. 30, 11:47 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will tree cover in the United States increase between EOY 2023 and 2030?
Manifold MarketsOver the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?
Manifold MarketsWill my Jura C9 coffee maker survive five years?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
Manifold MarketsIf Jesus Christ returns, will the US confirm aliens exist before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Recent polling suggests that the decline in religious affiliation in the US has stagnated.
- Will that trend reverse in the coming years? Resolves based on:
- Poll: Gallup--What is your religious preference — are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, another religion or no religion? (see https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx)
- Criteria: If the average Christian affiliation from 2026 through 2031, rounded to the nearest whole number, is larger than the average Christian affiliation from 2021 through 2025, then the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- The average from 2021 - 2025 is 66%.
