Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 52%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète3 oct. 23, 02:17 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be an autonomous driving car that can drive reliably in most of India, by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the first to ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving cars in their capital city?
Manifold MarketsWill Congress pass a law banning the sale of Human Driven cars to the average consumer by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Will autonomous or self-driving rideshares exceed that of human-driven rideshares (like Uber or Lyft) by Jan 1st, 2030 in the United States?
- I will evaluate this by examining metrics such as total mileage, total revenue from rides, and number of rides driven.
- It's possible that due to the changing modality of rideshares, some of these metrics may make more or less sense than others and want to leave this option open to resolve the market in the spirit of the question.
- I will consult subject matter experts if necessary.
- Hopefully this will be fairly easy or obvious to resolve, but if it's actually way too close to call, or due to a number of metrics diverging, I reserve the right to resolve at 50%.
- I will not bet in this market due to the somewhat subjective resolution criteria.