Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 70.1%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
28 mai 26, 23:55 UTC8 avr. 33, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
"Humans begin using speech to pass on what they've learned within a lifetime and then immediately become superintelligent (compared to other animals)" and "AI begins using continual learning to pass on what they've learned in-context within RL and deployment and then immediately becomes superintelligent" don't analogize perfectly, but it's close.
- Will ASI happen less than 365 days after a frontier-ish AI company deploys better-than-nothing continual learning?
- N/A if ASI happens first
- Update 2026-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Continual learning is defined as models being able to learn new things at the weights level without being retrained from scratch.
- Key distinguishing features:
- Current training loops (retraining from scratch or from base model) do not qualify
