Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 88.8%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète23 août 25, 17:48 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major attack on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2030?
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ForecastExRègles
The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.
- Some examples of results that could demonstrate this breakthrough would be a model that shows less degradation than contemporaries on long-context or one that can more effectively learn from mistakes during agentic tasks.
- The breakthrough needs to be major and conceptual, it can't be something as simple as models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling.
- In order to count this breakthrough must apply to general LLMs, not just using continual learning to solve a narrow problem or class of problems
- A paper claiming to have a really good result isn't enough (like the Titans paper).
- The breakthrough must be widely accepted as legitimate and there should be publicly accessible models that use it
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.