Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.7%
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète23 août 25, 16:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?
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ForecastExRègles
The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.
- Some examples of results that could demonstrate this breakthrough would be a model that shows less degradation than contemporaries on long-context or one that can more effectively learn from mistakes during agentic tasks.
- The breakthrough needs to be major and conceptual, it can't be something as simple as models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling.
- In order to count this breakthrough must apply to general LLMs, not just using continual learning to solve a narrow problem or class of problems
- A paper claiming to have a really good result isn't enough (like the Titans paper).
- The breakthrough must be widely accepted as legitimate and there should be publicly accessible models that use it
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.