Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 64.8%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète14 mars 25, 07:44 UTC1 mai 28, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?
KalshiWill AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?
PolymarketWill Joe Manchin run for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AOC run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich office will AOC announce a run for by the end of 2027?
PredictItWill AOC run for President or for the Senate in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
There have been recent calls from Democrats for Alexandria Ocasio Cortez to primary Chuck Schumer because of how he's handled the prospect of a government shutdown.
- Will AOC run for senate in New York in 2028?
- Note: She doesn't have to win for this to resolve yes.
- She just has to be on the ballot.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,8 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 548,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 29,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 310,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5 k €
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AOC run for senate in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AOC run for senate in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AOC run for senate in 2028? doit être résolu le 1 mai 2028.
- Comment Will AOC run for senate in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : There have been recent calls from Democrats for Alexandria Ocasio Cortez to primary Chuck Schumer because of how he's handled the prospect of a government shutdown.