Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 79.7%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète12 févr. 25, 02:13 UTC31 déc. 28, 13:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if anyone current living is verified as 120 years old by 2030.
- Only Jeanne Calment (1875-1997) has been verified as reaching 120. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people