Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?
IAOne-Off9mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 97.6%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
1 août 26, 06:35 UTC1 août 27, 06:31 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if:
- A paper or preprint containing the claimed proof is made public, AND
- Within the market window, expert consensus accepts the proof as correct — operationalized as any of: (a) publication/acceptance in a peer-reviewed venue, (b) a complete formalization in a proof assistant (e.g. Lean) verified end-to-end, or (c) public endorsement of correctness by at least three recognized researchers in sofic groups / group approximation theory (e.g. people with published work in the area) with no credible unresolved objection outstanding.
- Resolves NO if:
- A fatal, unpatched error is identified and acknowledged, or the claim is retracted, OR
- No paper materializes and the claim is walked back or abandoned, OR
