Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.8%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète11 août 25, 10:06 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
For “Yes”, a national law or regulation must come into effect granting legal status equivalent to marriage, civil partnership, or similar to a human–AI couple.
- I will not bet in this market.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 75,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 61,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 61,1 k €
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : For “Yes”, a national law or regulation must come into effect granting legal status equivalent to marriage, civil partnership, or similar to a human–AI couple.