Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 71.9%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète24 mai 23, 18:03 UTC31 déc. 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.
- New Zealand currently has this system (since 2012)
- The market would resolve YES if the law stays the same until 2033
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+3.0pt77%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 922,4 k €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 191,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 684,3 k €
KALSHITexas Senate winner?
- James Talarico+4.0pt56.4%
- Ken Paxton-3.0pt43.6%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 625,2 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party88%
- Republican Party-1.0pt12%
- Volume total
- 28 M €
- Volume 24h
- 616,3 k €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt5%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt16%
+48 résultats de plus
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 72% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2033.
- Comment Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.