Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.4%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète11 sept. 25, 16:49 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolution criteria
- Any country that has formally joined the Abraham Accords (by signing the Abraham Accords Declaration or a bilateral normalization agreement under its framework) officially announces it is suspending or terminating participation in the Accords, or officially abrogates/suspends the relevant Israel normalization agreement.
- Evidence must be an official government statement or legal act, or confirmation by a major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) citing government officials.
- Clarifications: Mere ambassador recalls, critical statements, trade freezes, or flight suspensions without an explicit suspension/termination/withdrawal do not count.
- If wording is ambiguous, resolution requires explicit language such as “suspend,” “terminate,” or “withdraw.” New countries that join before EOY 2026 are in scope; their withdrawal before the deadline counts.
- The Abraham Accords comprise a general declaration plus bilateral normalization deals between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain (Sept 2020), Morocco (Dec 2020), and a Sudan signature of the Accords Declaration (Jan 2021), though Sudan’s full bilateral normalization has lagged amid instability.
