Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.2%
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1
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète3 juin 26, 01:09 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
