Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.1%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète4 juil. 23, 18:58 UTC2 janv. 30, 01:16 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
If AIs are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.
- If AIs are not around but AI(s) are because AI(s) wiped them out then this market resolves to YES.
- If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The aggressor AI that wipes out other AIs does not necessarily need to survive.
- For example, an AI could destroy all compute on Earth, eliminating both itself and all other AIs in the process.
- The market would still resolve YES in this scenario as long as humanity survives.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If AIs are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.