Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 93.2%
Prévisionnistes
45
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
5 oct. 22, 22:21 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Magic: The Gathering have "you may cast this card without paying its mana cost" keyworded before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich Magic the Gathering color will have the fewest number of cards on Jan 1st 2027 according to Scryfall.com?
Manifold MarketsWill wizards of the coast make/produce a magic: the gathering movie/Tv show by 2035?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Asking GPT-3 MTG rules questions returns some rather nonsensical answers.
- For example:
- [image]This answer makes no sense, and those cited rules don't even exist.
- This was from a prompt where I supplied it with a list of other rules questions and correct answers to them, so it does "know" that it's supposed to be answering coherently and correctly.
- I can also tell from other experimentation that card text and the Magic Comprehensive Rules document were a part of GPT-3's training data.
- GPT-3 is clearly not powerful enough to properly understand such a complicated technical system.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 93% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Asking GPT-3 MTG rules questions returns some rather nonsensical answers.