Prévision communautaire actuelle
AGI 76.6%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+22.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
ObsolèteTendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiWill Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.
- If none of these ever get achieved by humanity, this never resolves.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 267,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 95,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 272 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first? ?
- Manifold Markets cote AGI à 77% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves when either the named outcome reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached.