Will a US House seat flip from Democrat to Republican in a 2027 special election?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.3%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète21 oct. 26, 05:35 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?
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PredictItRègles
This market resolves YES if a special election for a US House seat is completed in 2027 and the winner is a Republican, where the seat's vacating member was a Democrat (see definitions).
- When an election counts as "in 2027":
- - The election that actually fills the seat must take place between January 1 and December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- - This can be a special general election, a runoff, or a special primary or all-party first round in which one candidate wins outright by majority and so fills the seat.
- - A special election whose primary or first round is in 2027 but which needs a general election or runoff in 2028 does not count.
- - The vacancy may have arisen at any time, including before 2027.
