Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?
One-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionPolitique1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.7%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète21 oct. 26, 05:42 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves YES if a special election for a US House seat is completed in 2027 and the winner is a Democrat, where the seat's vacating member was a Republican (see definitions).
- When an election counts as "in 2027":
- - The election that actually fills the seat must take place between January 1 and December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- - This can be a special general election, a runoff, or a special primary or all-party first round in which one candidate wins outright by majority and so fills the seat.
- - A special election whose primary or first round is in 2027 but which needs a general election or runoff in 2028 does not count.
- - The vacancy may have arisen at any time, including before 2027.
