Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 79.9%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 35 minutes
30 nov. 23, 21:00 UTC14 janv. 28, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if a top 5 smartphone brand by market share is available on sale with a crystal material discovered as part of DeepMind’s crystal structure work in any part of it's composition, before the end of December 2028.
- Top 5 brands by market share are currently Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo, but I will re-review this when relevant.
- This restriction is to rule out hobbyists or other small-run shops pushing out something that may technically meet the criteria but is not widely available to verify room material claims.
- The phone must be on sale, not just up for preorder, and in shops and not just a paper launch.
- Crystal material must be a component of the phone and not the manufacturing process.
- Close date is set so I don’t have to resolve immediately over New Year.