Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030?
GéopolitiqueIAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 88.7%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète23 déc. 24, 02:40 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- The Al's actions must be unexpected and not reasonably predictable by its operators.
- Incidents where operators were aware of the risks but ignored them do not count.
- Deaths resulting from human decisions, where Al serves merely as a tool or assistant, are excluded (war, etc).
- The question concerns the total number of deaths caused by Al.
- Multiple deadly incidents from different Al systems will be combined if it occurs within 365 days.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria: