Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.9%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard9 avr. 26, 20:48 UTC31 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the METR 50% Time Horizon be "ambiguous" at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has #1 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.
- It will resolve N/A if METR announces the end of time horizons or stops doing them.
- n/a if they don’t release a task that long
