Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.3%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète9 avr. 26, 20:48 UTC31 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any AI model achieve 4k on CodeForces by EOY?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiWill a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
KalshiRègles
This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.
- It will resolve N/A if METR announces the end of time horizons or stops doing them.
- n/a if they don’t release a task that long
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? doit être résolu le 31 mars 2027.
- Comment Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.