Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète20 nov. 24, 13:09 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an apocalypse cult attack a civilian or military target in Taiwan before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill a foreign missile strike a civilian target in California before 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?
Manifold MarketsFirst country to conduct offensive nuclear strike (before 2035)?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
As our collective memory of the devastation and fear of nuclear war recedes the risks of a nation using these weapons feels more tangible.
- Global tensions are increasing worldwide with nuclear powered and nuclear-backed nations only serving to make the threat of a nuclear attack more likely.
- Will the tension break this decade or will we survive another 5 years without witnessing the horrific devastation that leveled Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
- edit: revised question to “will there be a nuclear strike” rather than nuclear detonation.
- This market will resolve to true for any nuclear strike on a civilian or military target even if it is a single bomb without retaliation.
- This market will also resolve true if there is an attempted nuclear strike that does not detonate (as in the bomb is launched but fails to detonate because of interception or malfunction).