Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
One-OffGéopolitiqueMoyen-Orient2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 99%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète22 mars 26, 01:12 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
- The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
- Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.