Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesPrévision communautaire actuelle40 - 50% 39.9%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète17 févr. 25, 08:58 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until December 1st 2026 or later?
Manifold MarketsWill a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketOpenAI market share this week
KalshiRègles
This market is the same as this one but uses different buckets and is about a different benchmark.
- The best performance by an AI system on EnigmaEval as of December 31st 2026.
- Resolution criteria
- This resolution will use https://scale.com/leaderboard/enigma_eval as its source.
- If the number reported is exactly on the boundary (eg. 10%) then the higher choice will be used (ie. 10-20%).
- Which AI systems count?