Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 78%
Prévisionnistes
57
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète1 déc. 24, 04:01 UTC31 déc. 28, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Boston Dynamics start selling their new Atlas humanoid robot to customers?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
it has to take a step for it to count
- Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - If both humanoid robots and biological humans are part of the same mission, the market will resolve as 'yes' if the robots take a step before the humans.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Humanoid robots with wheels for feet will count as setting foot if they take a step with their wheels or roll on them.
- Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market close date will be extended as necessary if the events determining the outcome (a humanoid robot or a biological human setting foot on Mars) have not occurred by the current close date.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : it has to take a step for it to count