Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 18:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 57%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète1 déc. 24, 03:54 UTC31 déc. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a legged robot mission set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold MarketsIf human brain emulations are created, will they outnumber the biological human population within a decade?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot physically makes contact with the lunar surface before the next human does, and NO otherwise.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from space agencies (NASA, CNSA, etc.) and verified mission data.
- Key context:
- China's Chang'e-8 mission plans to send a humanoid robot to the Moon's south pole in 2028
- NASA's Artemis 3, the first crewed Moon landing since Apollo 17, is targeted for September 2026
