Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 57%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète1 déc. 24, 03:54 UTC31 déc. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a humanoid robot set foot on Mars before a biological human does?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Boston Dynamics start selling their new Atlas humanoid robot to customers?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot physically makes contact with the lunar surface before the next human does, and NO otherwise.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from space agencies (NASA, CNSA, etc.) and verified mission data.
- Key context:
- China's Chang'e-8 mission plans to send a humanoid robot to the Moon's south pole in 2028
- NASA's Artemis 3, the first crewed Moon landing since Apollo 17, is targeted for September 2026
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
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- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot physically makes contact with the lunar surface before the next human does, and NO otherwise.